Monday Rambling – Week 13

Coffee needed!

No temper tantrums today, though. Just a bit off weekend experiences, market thoughts, players to watch and forward looking…

What a crazy finish to the Maybank Championship in Malaysia yesterday! Nacho Elvira duffing his chip to the 18th green due to a massive thunder from the sky in his backswing. And then he still sinks the following 30 footer to claim a play-off, only to lose it to a very fortunate Scott Hend on the first playoff hole. Where do they come up with this stuff?

Unfortunately I actually missed the finish, as I really thought the tournament was over when they suspended the play on the last hole, and I chose to join my family for breakfast with the in-laws in stead. Not a very big deal, but It is still an opportunity missed, as these playoff finishes usually calls for massive swings and overreactions in the Betfair markets.

Just a single player note from Malaysia: Watch out for Ross Fisher. He seems to be going forward at the moment with solidity in his ballstriking and improvements around the greens. His bogey on the last was the only one all weekend on a tricky course and had his putter fired, Scott Hend would have been in trouble.

It was otherwise an average weekend, trading wise. Not a lot to gain from Malaysia, but Valspar proving a bit more profitable. Late last night, I tried to stay up to follow the Bank of Hope Founders Cup from the LPGA, but I just got too tired after the 3:30 AM morning session from Malaysia. Well, maybe Carlotta Ciganda’s lullaby of a putting routine had an impact on the decision to hit the bed too…  Man, those girls are slow!

But with the LPGA as a nice example, I sense a development in the Betfair golf markets with a slow but steady increase in liquidity in not only the two main tours, but also the Asian Tour, the LPGA and the bigger senior tournaments, which gives a trader like me additional opportunities to make a profit.

From a punters perspective I just recently discovered Betfair’s E/W-market for the two main tours. I see big potential here, especially for the odd punt on the longshots, as the prices at times tend to drift far too long close to tee off. The difference from the regular bookies obviously being that Betfair offers 10 places (!) at 1/5 the odds, which in some cases gives you close to market-leading winner odds and a huge price for a top 10 place.  That’s just massive, and calls for some more of my attention in the future.  

Looking forward, this week is a big one. The WGC Matchplay in one of the trading highlights of the year as the markets always seems to be a bit off when it comes to match play tournaments and the knockout format. The big stars are all starting, but this is (and will always be) the time to look for the underdog…

Have a nice week!

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